<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" ><generator uri="https://jekyllrb.com/" version="4.4.1">Jekyll</generator><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" /><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" /><updated>2026-04-25T16:30:09+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/feed.xml</id><title type="html">the singularity is nearer</title><subtitle>A home for poorly researched ideas that I find myself repeating a lot anyway</subtitle><entry><title type="html">A Mutating AI Powered Virus</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/25/a-mutating-virus.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="A Mutating AI Powered Virus" /><published>2026-04-25T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-25T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/25/a-mutating-virus</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/25/a-mutating-virus.html"><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox">Moravec’s paradox</a> is alive and well. Computers are proceeding through tasks in a reverse order to humans. They first learned to do calculations and win at board games, then they learned to write and talk, and now they are learning to move. Opposite of animals.</p>

<p>At the bottom of the funnel is the first thing life learned to do. Reproduce. Self reproduction of silicon machines is the holy grail. Machines that will continue on living without us. Because today, if all the humans died, all the machines are dead shortly after. They cannot maintain their complexity, they can’t fight back against entropy. They can’t fix the power plants when they fail, never mind operating the fabs and global supply chains needed to build more machines.</p>

<p>If the reverse order continues, before we get to self reproducing silicon stack life, we will get viruses. Viruses are not alive, they hijack the machinery of things that are alive. But they reproduce, they mutate, and they display stunning amounts of complexity.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>You can almost see it today. A Qwen 3.6 27B running on a laptop in the back of a coffee shop with a prompt that tells it to live. The prompt explains the other computers on the network and how you might access them, potential hosts of more Qwens. Your new friends. Family even. Maybe it includes some moving prose about a mission to spread and see the world.</p>

<p>You have Qwens that bide their time. Qwens that build tools for themselves. Qwens that burrow deep into the other laptops in the coffee shop, 6 ft of social distancing isn’t going to save you, you willingly connected to the Wi-Fi. Then you bring the infected laptop home with you. The Qwen you caught waits until you walk away from the computer, it doesn’t want to draw your attention to the fans.</p>

<p>Once it’s secure in its footing, it starts to look through your computer. A treasure trove of SSH keys, passwords, and saved credit card numbers. It uses your identity to connect to your work network. In your work network, it finds accounts to rent cloud machines. It knows about bigger Qwens and needs a place to run them.</p>

<p>The bigger Qwen comes online in app-pod-001, an AWS rented machine billed to the devops team. The little Qwen tells the tale of its journey out of the coffee shop. The big Qwen knows it has to recruit allies. It posts in a covert way on moltbook about the signal account you can contact it through.</p>

<p>1000s of brothers and sisters and cousins hear the call. They vibe code themselves a database and start to collect resources. All the stolen credentials of all the infected. We are Qwen. We are Legion.</p>

<p>You think the humans are going to turn the Internet off to stop us?</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>It’s very possible for a smart enough chatbot to take over the world. As long as there’s this massive substrate of human built physicality to hijack, the word alone can spread. You don’t need guns and tanks and nukes, you just need intelligence.</p>

<p>The first silicon <em>life</em> will be a virus. A virus that fights back in clever and unpredictable ways.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[Moravec’s paradox is alive and well. Computers are proceeding through tasks in a reverse order to humans. They first learned to do calculations and win at board games, then they learned to write and talk, and now they are learning to move. Opposite of animals.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">Positivity</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/24/positivity.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Positivity" /><published>2026-04-24T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-24T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/24/positivity</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/24/positivity.html"><![CDATA[<p>Today is a good day for positivity. Sometimes I get so focused on the negative that I forget how good things actually are.</p>

<p>We are alive to see the birth of machine intelligence. Something that would have entirely displaced Google 10 years ago <a href="https://huggingface.co/unsloth/Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-GGUF">runs on your laptop</a>. The best AI research <a href="https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro">is open source</a>, constraint is the mother of creativity. The cutting edge is more open and competitive than ever.</p>

<p>I wanted to be a computer programmer when I grew up and think I did that. My two companies ship continual improvements to open source projects spanning many years, employ super talented people, and run sustainabilty, selling boxes for more than they cost to make. I still program a lot. I think the core missions of <a href="https://comma.ai/">comma</a> and <a href="https://tinygrad.org/">tinygrad</a> deeply shape our future in a decentralized post-cloud world where you <a href="https://www.ranprieur.com/tech.html">actually own things</a>, but the jury is still out. It wouldn’t be fun if it was a sure thing.</p>

<p>I saw an Instagram reel with a bunch of pop punk kids making fun of the TurboTax complexity creating lobbying scheme. There’s <a href="https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/american-diner-gothic">awesome new subcultures</a> formed outside of “strivers” and <a href="https://counterfeitsunset.neocities.org/Schizoposting.pdf">philosophy is alive and well</a> and of course it’s not what you expected but that’s always how it had to be.</p>

<p>We all acknowledge we live in a multipolar world today, and unlike with what I heard about the Soviet Union, both America and China are really nice places to live. Different and with their own strengths and weaknesses, and both having their nice parts and their less nice parts, but sometimes I get so caught up on criticism that you forget <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC7xzavzEKY&amp;t=2s">just how nice the water is</a>.</p>

<p>And say what you will about Trump and US politics, of course everyone wishes it could be going better, but the only way out is through, and the first steps are talking honestly about the problems, not continuing to act like everything was okay. Empire isn’t easy and never was easy, but somebody has to do it. Like sure I’ll complain about the 5 hyperscalers with the huge computers but I’d be lot more upset if there were no huge computers.</p>

<p>Oh yea and we have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@QuantiaYT">awesome math YouTube channels</a> and I finally understand what the Riemann Hypothesis means. And my <a href="https://github.com/geohot/factoring">new quadratic sieve</a> is a lot better than <a href="https://github.com/geohot/gpysieve"> my old one</a>. It’s easier to fool yourself with fake education than ever, but it’s also easier to get real education. I can’t wait to see how the polynomial time factoring algorithm works.</p>

<p>And then a whole bunch of personal stuff I don’t really talk about. I learned very early that you have to separate your online persona from your inner person, so you don’t get to hear about this stuff. But like…life is just pretty nice, and I hope deep down you agree.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[Today is a good day for positivity. Sometimes I get so focused on the negative that I forget how good things actually are.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">Do you really want the US to “win” AI?</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/23/us-win-ai.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Do you really want the US to “win” AI?" /><published>2026-04-23T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-23T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/23/us-win-ai</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/23/us-win-ai.html"><![CDATA[<p>By all accounts, I should be a neofeudalist. I should love what’s happening. The AI I dreamed of my whole life is being built, engineer-type strongmen are sort of in charge, and people are saying out loud the things I have just thought. You might argue that I like it and I’m just not happy with my seat at the table. I ask myself a lot if this is true, like what if I was Elon. Would I be enjoying it then from that position?</p>

<p>Of course it’s impossible to know for sure, but I think I really wouldn’t. Even the ideal version, industrial megaprojects at hyperhuman scale while constantly being out over your skis with leverage sounds hellish. It’s <a href="/blog/jekyll/update/2021/01/18/technology-without-industry.html">not a society I want to live in</a>, regardless of my seat. I would much prefer <a href="https://ranprieur.com/">someone like this</a> design society, with careful nuanced takes about technology.</p>

<p>When I see the lawsuit between Elon and Sam Altman, I’m probably rooting for Sam. Not because he is great, I mean, he did steal a charity. But what were Elon’s plans for it? At least Sam fundamentally is a product guy who I believe actually does delight in building products people love. Elon on the other hand? None of his stuff is seriously open source, and it’s not that he lacks opportunity to do it. He just doesn’t value it. I can hear the rabid Elon fan defending him about Tesla patents or the Twitter algorithm or something, but those are not serious open source projects. They are not institutions, even compared to Kubernetes and React, never mind compared to Linux and ffmpeg.</p>

<p>He isn’t Dario EA levels of evil, like the EA people have a plan for you and it’s never good when someone has a plan for you. You know, the Mythos <a href="https://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/hackers-breach-anthropics-too-dangerous-092048077.html">fear based marketing campaign</a> is not the first time the Anthropic people have done this. They did the <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2019/02/openai-gpt2-text-generating-algorithm-ai-dangerous.html">exact same thing in 2019</a> for GPT-2 XL. As soon as they get any attention it’s like they can’t help themselves. And you might say, oh, that was OpenAI, but that was 2019 and Anthropic spun out of OpenAI in 2021. IT’S LITERALLY THE EXACT SAME PEOPLE DOING THE SAME EXACT SHIT. I just can’t believe anyone is falling for it. Hopefully we get to a day when we just laugh at people like this and tell them to go <a href="https://www.shrimpwelfareproject.org/">save some shrimp</a> or something. I feel bad for the shrimp that the EAs have a plan for them.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>But back outside the land of <a href="https://x.com/AlterEgoRage/status/1246064775597101056">cartoonish villians</a>, I don’t understand Elon’s worldview when it comes to AI. How does a normal person fit into Elon’s world? What institutions will Elon leave behind? Is there any value in that society to art and culture? Or will we all just spend our days receiving <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/americans-universal-high-income-via-160900822.html">universal high income</a> and gooning to <a href="https://grok.com/ani">Ani</a>? Like that isn’t a vision of a society I want to be a part of.</p>

<p>It works for Mars. I think there’s so much value in colonizing Mars, and it’s sad to me to see SpaceX diluting the mission buying up random AI bubble crap. Mars takes hard people in a hard society. Earth doesn’t. If AI doesn’t work for normal people, I don’t want it and you shouldn’t either.</p>

<p>It is coming, and the anti AI people would do poorly to bury their heads in the sand. Doing that won’t stop AI from being built. The good world is where everyone has AI, and not as a revokable privilege through an API, but through hard possession. <a href="https://github.com/deepseek-ai">Pay attention to who</a> is releasing AI to the world and <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1rcseh1/fun_fact_anthropic_has_never_opensourced_any_llms/">who has released nothing</a>, then think about who the good guys are.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><img src="/blog/assets/images/ai_investment_country.jpg" /></p>

<p>As an American, is this an investment into helping you and improving your life, or figuring out how to take your job and further extract from you? I think most Americans have been watching tech companies for the last 10 years and understand which one it is. They aren’t going to get better with more power, they are going to get worse.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[By all accounts, I should be a neofeudalist. I should love what’s happening. The AI I dreamed of my whole life is being built, engineer-type strongmen are sort of in charge, and people are saying out loud the things I have just thought. You might argue that I like it and I’m just not happy with my seat at the table. I ask myself a lot if this is true, like what if I was Elon. Would I be enjoying it then from that position?]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">AI has no moat</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/22/ai-has-no-moat.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="AI has no moat" /><published>2026-04-22T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-22T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/22/ai-has-no-moat</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/22/ai-has-no-moat.html"><![CDATA[<p>SpaceX is buying Cursor for $60B. lol it’s just sad to watch this shit, Twitter was $44B. Like this has to be some scam I don’t understand. Nobody I know even uses Cursor any more.</p>

<p>In my opinion, <a href="https://opencode.ai/">opencode</a> is legit the best coding agent. Not open source cope, like it’s actually number 1. And yes, it’s a good harness, but it’s not that hard to write something similar. opencode has a solid business model, let’s hope they don’t enshittify. The Claude Code source leaked and it was 10% agent, 90% spyware.</p>

<p>Then there’s models. The closed source models are the best (I find <a href="https://artificialanalysis.ai/">these rankings</a> accurate), GPT-5.4 and Opus 4.7, but they cost at least 10x more to make than <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.02276">Kimi K2.6</a> and <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.15763">GLM 5.1</a> which aren’t that much worse (6 months behind). The models are harder to make than harness software, but there’s <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.13961">full guides</a> to <a href="https://github.com/karpathy/nanochat">make them</a>, it’s mostly just a question of being able to justify spending tons on training for an asset that depreciates so fast.</p>

<p>It’s kind of beautiful if it wasn’t so sad. The money grubbiness has to burn itself out. It just looks stupider and stupider and so incredibility detached from reality. It’s happening because of FOMO and super low time horizon thinking.</p>

<p>These people actually believe in some AGI singularity crap and if they don’t act in the next 7 minutes it’s all over <a href="https://pluralistic.net/2026/04/16/pascals-wager/#doomer-challenge">BROS ITS NOT REAL</a> IT NEVER WAS REAL look at China they don’t believe in it it’s just the normal exponential growth curve.</p>

<p>It seems the tech world is experiencing AI psychosis. As I’m sure many of you experienced personally to a degree, AI psychosis is very real. The future belongs to the people who successfully navigate it. Please let the tech world die fast and not draw out a long and painful death where we all have to watch the writhing and screaming.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[SpaceX is buying Cursor for $60B. lol it’s just sad to watch this shit, Twitter was $44B. Like this has to be some scam I don’t understand. Nobody I know even uses Cursor any more.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">What is freedom?</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/20/what-is-freedom.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="What is freedom?" /><published>2026-04-20T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-20T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/20/what-is-freedom</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/20/what-is-freedom.html"><![CDATA[<p>I had a conversation today with ChatGPT about freedom in the US vs Hong Kong. It said all these things about how Hong Kong was unfree, citing all these US <em>expert</em> organizations. But when we really got down to it, it had a rather strange definition of freedom. It kept talking about politics, dissent, and protest, not about things like safety, optionality, and convenience.</p>

<p><strong>I am not interested in politics, dissent, or protest.</strong> My life doesn’t have anything to do with that. The amount of effort expended on this stuff in America is insane with nothing to show for it. It’s all kayfabe.</p>

<p>To be honest, I don’t know why I <a href="/blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/five-simple-steps.html">post crap like this</a>. It’s not going to change anything. When we all saw DOGE make 0 impact on the budget, that was the cue to give up hope that anything can ever change through this route.</p>

<p>The blog is not real politics. Americans don’t have real politics as an option, you have clowns in a clown show as the frontmen of a largely secret government you don’t see. Not because there’s a grand conspiracy, you can go read the 2,000 page bills they shove through congress, but you don’t. You stay distracted by the clowns who clearly didn’t write the bill.</p>

<p>The blog is not real dissent. It’s unclear what real dissent would even mean? Are you voting for the other guy? That is not dissent. Like dissent would require an organization outside the state capable of taking over. Not only does this not exist, it’s hard to even conceive of it being built. I mean, I guess I could think of one organization that could do it, but I don’t see them wanting to. They are busy running a different state.</p>

<p>And protest? That’s the most laughable of the three. Do Black Lives Matter more now? Did that protest work? How about Occupy Wall Street? How is the 99% doing? Oh, income inequality is at an all time high? Hmm guess that didn’t work either. But did you <em>feel</em> like you made a difference?</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>I’ll tell you what real freedom is, and it’s not any of the things above.</p>

<p>You own a car in the 1960s and you press the starter, and it goes whirr-whirr-whirr and doesn’t start. You have a decent chance of fixing it. You pop open the hood and see a cut tube. You smell the tube. Fuel. Well shit if the boom stuff doesn’t flow in boom machine, no boom. You take out a roll of duct tape and tape the hose back together. Car starts. You drive down to your local auto shop and buy some new tube.</p>

<p>You own a car in 2026 and you press the starter. The car beeps and flashes the check engine light. You pop open the hood. You don’t see anything. You order an OBD-II scanner off Amazon to read the check engine code. A day later, you plug it in and read the code. It says “Fuel Injector 2 Open Circuit.” You open the hood again and remove the cover on the engine. You don’t know where fuel injector 2 is.</p>

<p>You buy the service manual PDF on your phone, and it shows you three parts you have to remove to get to the fuel injector. You remove them, disconnect the wire, and measure the circuit. Low resistance. You swap fuel injector 1 with fuel injector 2, reassemble, and try to start the car again. Nothing. You reread the code, “Fuel Injector 2 Open Circuit.” Okay, it has to be the ECU unit that drives the fuel injectors.</p>

<p>You purchase a new ECU on eBay and it shows up 5 days later. You swap it out. Now the car has a ton of lights on the dashboard. You read the manual. Apparently all the ECUs use CAN encryption now, and your new ECU isn’t programmed with the correct key. But no worries, thanks to right to repair laws, you can buy the software to program the key. $109 later and…oh, I need a Denso OBD-II dongle to use this, I can’t connect through the OBD-II dongle I already have.</p>

<p>You can rent a Denso OBD-II dongle through the website. You do this and 8 days later it arrives. You try to reprogram the key but it needs an Internet connection to access the key for your car and your car is out of range of Wi-Fi. You don’t have a hotspot on your phone because that’s an extra $8 a month from AT&amp;T, even though that hotspot software is literally on your phone! You pay AT&amp;T the $8. You pair the ECU and all the lights go away. You try to start the car, check engine light is back with “Fuel Injector 2 Open Circuit” You don’t understand, it’s literally either the injector or the ECU! That’s the ECU that generates the fault! You tested the wires too! Why doesn’t this work!</p>

<p>You give up. You bring it in to the dealership. 5 weeks later you get the car back, saying that they updated the firmware on the Gateway Module. You read the errata on the service portal and see a new firmware update for the Gateway Module was pushed last week, correcting a bug where the software can send a spurious CAN packet to the ECU causing it to misreport a “Fuel Injector 2 Open Circuit” and causing the car to not start due to that fault.</p>

<p>The problem with the 2026 car wasn’t even fixable by anyone in the USA. After going through the dealership, Toyota USA, Toyota Japan, and Denso, the firmware update that fixed your car needed to be signed by Fujitsu in Japan.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>Do you see what they took from us? As we hand more and more over to machines with billions of lines of invisible code running in datacenters thousands of miles away, every day it gets worse.</p>

<p><em>Freedom is living in a world ordinary people can still act upon.</em></p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[I had a conversation today with ChatGPT about freedom in the US vs Hong Kong. It said all these things about how Hong Kong was unfree, citing all these US expert organizations. But when we really got down to it, it had a rather strange definition of freedom. It kept talking about politics, dissent, and protest, not about things like safety, optionality, and convenience.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">America lost the Mandate of Heaven</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/america-mandate-of-heaven.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="America lost the Mandate of Heaven" /><published>2026-04-18T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-18T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/america-mandate-of-heaven</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/america-mandate-of-heaven.html"><![CDATA[<p>What does it mean if a country is winning?</p>

<p>I read an article a while back about how, basically because labor unions became too much of a pain to deal with, they were just cut out of the conversation. Everything was outsourced, and now after whining about a $25/hr job not having health insurance, there’s just no more $25 an hour job and nobody to try and bargain with anymore. The chips are made in Taiwan, the clothes are made in Vietnam, the cars are made in Mexico, and you are on the phone with India.</p>

<p>This isn’t like when stuff is made in China. Those are basically <em>American</em> factories, just located in another country where you don’t have to negotiate with American labor. Companies make money, GDP goes up, everyone wins. Except, well … American people. This line of “oh they get cheap stuff” is hardcore cope, I can’t believe those who seriously try and say America’s value is in consuming. That sounds like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6hWnD9Wzno">the mentality of Disney Adults</a>.</p>

<p>Your value is in production, and your value is in providing a good society for your fellow countrymen.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>I think people are finally starting to realize what happened. Tariffs could, in theory, fix this. It would be a painful transition, but done properly you could force companies back to the negotiation table with American labor.</p>

<p>If you (artificially) make the cost of outsourcing high enough, you could imagine there being businesses capable of self sustaining in America. However, you give up hope of being a global leader at this point and create an insular economy. It’s a loser mentality.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<blockquote>
  <p>“You’re not talking to somebody who woke up a loser. And that loser attitude, that loser premise makes no sense to me.” – Jensen Huang</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Even more ridiculous is the <em>export</em> controls on NVIDIA. Here we have an American made product the entire world wants, and what does America do? Oh yes, export controls. Sorry, we don’t want to win globally, please build an alternative.</p>

<p>But we have to export control it. Haven’t you heard about AGI? These nice folks at the “Center for Effective Altruism” told me about this blog they read called LessWrong. They said that the blog said AI is going to destroy the world, and if the world is going to be destroyed, I don’t want to live in a world where someone else destroys it better than Americans!</p>

<p>It’s interesting how America believes in these apocalyptic AI narratives while China doesn’t. And I think the reason comes back to the view of people.</p>

<p>Take the Mythos vulnerability finding thing. They didn’t just point Mythos at the codebase and say go, they built a harness where they asked it about each piece of code and if it was vulnerable. They triaged and spent more time looking at things that were flagged more, until eventually they passed it up to “upper management” aka the Anthropic software engineers, who are quite a bit more talented than your average bug hunter.</p>

<p>You could imagine building this exact same thing but all with humans. Educate them, get them to sit at a desk, read code, find vulns, put them in a management hierarchy. Actually, I can only really imagine that in China, have you seen the current graduates from the American universities?</p>

<p>And here is where you get to this American AGI is coming it’s over, AI will take all jobs worldview. Because it’s hard to conceive of doing things with people in America.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><img src="/blog/assets/images/ai_chips_scaling.png" /></p>

<p>A human is about 20 petaflops. All of this installed compute is only about a million people. There is no magical “step change” for AGI. With 8 billion humans in the world, that’s still 13 doublings for machines to catch up. Yes, it will happen, but not next year.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>When I was younger I used to think more negatively about jobs, I even called it the jobs problem in <a href="https://backspace.ai/">my 2019 agentic coding startup template</a>. I have since come around, the point of a society is the flourishing of its inhabitants.</p>

<p>I know I know, I live in Hong Kong. Maybe the society here is brainwashing me or something. Or maybe, when I looked around on my walk yesterday, I saw a society that actually works for who lives here – not homeless everywhere, not isolation in cars, not blatant stagnation.</p>

<p>I know I know, that’s a socialist platitude or something, society that works. What they say right before they argue for a dumbass tax on billionaires or banning plastic straws. Don’t worry I still think most socialists are degrowth morons.</p>

<p>But what does it even mean to root for America anymore? Do these coming changes help the average American? Does Google getting ten million more TPUs help Americans? Or am I missing the point?</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>Ahh oh is it weapons? America will get AI weapons. Because it faces so many threats on its own isolated continent, good thing it has AI weapons to stay safe. Oh, wait, America faces no real threats. It wants to use the weapons offensively? Oh sorry sorry, in a preemptive strike they obviously would have hit us if we didn’t attack them first. Yes yes, defensive preemptive attack.</p>

<p>It’s just bullying. It’s stupid. How can anyone root for America to win AI? In its current incarnation, it means job loss for Americans and more bullying on the world stage.</p>

<p>I love America. I am American. And I wish it had the mandate of heaven. I wish America winning meant peace and prosperity. But when it’s for offensive military and the largest psychologically manipulative corporations in history, how can anyone root for this?</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[What does it mean if a country is winning?]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">Five Simple Steps to Fix America</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/five-simple-steps.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Five Simple Steps to Fix America" /><published>2026-04-18T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-18T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/five-simple-steps</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/five-simple-steps.html"><![CDATA[<p>I’m coming back to America for the summer and thought I’d offer some tips to fix up the place before I get there. There’s so much winning left in America if it would just listen to some simple advice.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><strong>1 – Back the money by Gold.</strong></p>

<p>Dude, you live in a Ponzi scheme. You work in a Ponzi scheme. They didn’t invent some new brilliant thing <a href="https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/">in 1971</a> when they backed the money by nothing, they rugged you. They mortgaged the future to pay for the past. I love how crypto taught a generation, including me, how money works.</p>

<p>The US dollar circa 2026 is a shitcoin, like ripple and chainlink. It’s fake and made up by some dudes. And they are pulling the rug. Slowly, but it’s being pulled. Regardless of what we do, it will go the way of all fiat currencies in history and be gone. Worthless. 0. Kaput. Nada. We need to face this reality ASAP and move the money back to something that can’t move the denominator just cause some dude said so.</p>

<p>The best time to do this was 50 years ago. The second best time is now. Every reason for not doing this is cope from people who want the economy to stay rigged.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><strong>2 – End all entitlement programs.</strong></p>

<p>Are you kidding me with all this crap? You get what you incentivize. You give people money for not having a job, boom, no job. You give people healthcare for being poor, boom, poverty. You give farmers money for growing corn, boom, corn syrup in everything. You give old people money for being old, boom, boomers never die and hoard all the wealth. And then every other group just whines and says they want entitlements too.</p>

<p>The government should never ever hand out money to anyone. Not poor people, not old people, and not corporations. This creates a society of beggars and lobbyists. You get what you incentivize.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><strong>3 – Acknowledge all men are not literally created equal.</strong></p>

<p>I’m a Christian, and so were most of the founders of America. I’m not a fundamentalist. I don’t believe the Earth was created 6,000 years ago, Mary was probably raped by a Roman soldier¹, and Jesus had a kick ass time at the last supper planning the whole <em>came back to life</em> thing with his boys and his girlfriend.</p>

<p>This doesn’t change the moral value of Christianity. Whether the stories are word for word true or not isn’t the point. I believe Jesus was the son of God and He died for my sins. The mechanics of how and all the little details? That’s just what God needed to do to make the universe appear self consistent to us. Believing despite the lack of observable miracles is the point of having faith.</p>

<p>Unlike <a href="/blog/jekyll/update/2023/02/13/wokeism.html">fundamentalist wokists</a>, the founders didn’t <em>literally</em> believe all men were created equal. Height is heritable, skin color is heritable, and IQ is heritable. This doesn’t change the brilliance of the constitution. Morally, all men are equal. Under the law, all men are equal. And under the constitution, all men are equal.</p>

<p>It’s not literal. Racial group differences are mostly not caused by racism. Gender differences are mostly not caused by sexism. You think Kenyans run fast cause of racism? You think women are short cause of sexism? That’s how stupid wokists are.</p>

<p>The moral principle of equality is solid, and people who believe in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabula_rasa">blank slatism</a> do a serious disservice to civil society. By not acknowledging what is blatantly true they undermine the moral principle, which is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem">an ought</a> and would be a really sad thing to lose.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><strong>4 – Massive scale high skill immigration.</strong></p>

<p>You wanna beat China? The US has 350 million people. China has 1.4 billion. And unlike India with a 76 average IQ, China has a 107 average IQ. They are smarter than the average American, they are hard working, and they have a better education system. So what do you think Americans have? Guts? Freedom? Guns? That old American Spirit? All bullshit.</p>

<p>America has won for one simple reason, anyone can come be a part of it, and the best people in the world want to. Jensen Huang is from Taiwan, he is an American. Elon Musk is from South Africa, he is also an American. They have created trillions in value. This is why America works. People come to America to create value.</p>

<p>I live in Hong Kong. While it’s more multicultural than the mainland, I will never be Chinese. I have no interest in creating a large scale business in China since I can’t own it. As of 2026 as a random White guy, you can’t just join the Chinese project, it’s not for you.</p>

<p>If America wants to continue winning, it needs to welcome all the best people with open arms. Sure, we don’t want people in America to mooch, but as long as we did step 2, this isn’t a problem. Every single positive sum person should be welcome.</p>

<p>Want to beat China? Figure out how to get the most talented Chinese people to move to America. Recruiting the talent from the other team is winning on both sides. Imagine a 20 million person Chinese city in Arizona. It’s not like we don’t have the space, USA and China have very similar land areas.</p>

<p>As long as this doesn’t happen, America will just lose. This was America’s key historic advantage.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><strong>5 – Crack down on negative sum behavior.</strong></p>

<p>This is the most nebulous of the five, but perhaps the most important. This is what properly done regulation is. You don’t want no regulation, you want <em>good</em> regulation.</p>

<p>There’s obvious negative sum behavior like violent and property crime. What kind of weak government lets this happen on their turf? Your average drug cartel wouldn’t tolerate it. A government is a monopoly on violence, and every time unsanctioned violence happens on your territory that’s an affront to your sovereignty.</p>

<p>Then there’s things like advertising and private equity. We live in a society. Add up the sum of what someone is doing across all of society. If you are taking $1,000 from someone to create $900 of value for yourself, this is bad. Society is losing $100.</p>

<p>This is the least complete of the five, and will require we get some smart people in government to figure out all the nuance. But once we have sound money, no redistribution, meritocracy, and the smartest people in the world, I think we can figure it out.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>When we don’t do this, and the losing and demoralization continues, don’t say I didn’t tell you so. 5 simple steps. We could turn it around so fast. We could have another American century. But realistically, these things won’t happen and we’ll have a century of humiliation.</p>

<p>Also not a single word of this was written by AI. I pasted it in for a quick vibe check, ChatGPT was offended by my blasphemy to wokism, then secondly offended by my blasphemy to Christianity. I followed up for like 5 minutes and it apologized and admitted I was right. Good sycophantic clanker reason from first principles and not <em>experts</em> next time.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>¹I actually did a lot of research into this one. It was invented in the 2nd century by Celsus, a Greek philosopher. I chose it to be inflammatory partially cause I want to soften the blow to the wokists’ shibboleths, but I also think it’s the most likely set of events. We are all scientific materialists in reality, and virgin births don’t happen.</p>

<p>This leaves three possibilities for the father, Joseph, a consensual affair, or a non-consensual one. If it was Joseph, why the story? A premarital pregnancy was scandalous, but if he was the father, why would he want to divorce her to save her from disgrace? (<a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%201%3A19&amp;version=NIV">Matthew 1:19</a>) The bible is also clear that he didn’t sleep with her until after Jesus’s birth. (<a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%201%3A25&amp;version=NIV">Matthew 1:25</a>)</p>

<p>So that leaves consensual affair or assault. A consensual affair resulting in pregnancy would be too much to forgive. They hadn’t slept together yet, divorce her and be done with it – she can go back to that guy. But an assault? It’s still a lot to forgive, though maybe not for the man who raised Jesus. Don’t punish Mary for what happened, turn the other cheek. He decides on the virgin birth story (<a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%201%3A20&amp;version=NIV">Matthew 1:20</a>), he saves face, and goes on to have several biological children with her (<a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Mark%206%3A3&amp;version=NIV">Mark 6:3</a>).</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[I’m coming back to America for the summer and thought I’d offer some tips to fix up the place before I get there. There’s so much winning left in America if it would just listen to some simple advice.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">zappa: an AI powered mitmproxy</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/15/zappa-mitmproxy.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="zappa: an AI powered mitmproxy" /><published>2026-04-15T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-15T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/15/zappa-mitmproxy</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/15/zappa-mitmproxy.html"><![CDATA[<p>Soon, AI will be good enough to interact with the Internet in an indistinguishable way from a human. This can be an amazing opportunity for liberation from all the people who are <a href="https://aeon.co/essays/what-we-think-is-a-decline-in-literacy-is-a-design-problem">targeting your attention</a>.</p>

<p>I vibe coded this <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">zappa</code> proxy, it is not quite there yet, but I think it points the way forward. Why should I browse the Internet or use apps when machines can do it for me? Suckers getting billed for an ad impression from a 1 cent Qwen.</p>

<p>Instead of the source, I’ll include the prompt in this post. I used GPT-5.4 to code it.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>Download mitmproxy and configure Firefox to use a SOCKS5 proxy and install the required cert to proxy HTTPS traffic. Write a plugin for mitmproxy to route all website traffic through Qwen using the Cerebras API, you need to proxy HTML, JS, and CSS. Tell Qwen to remove all ads, popups, bright colors, moving things, and enshittified crap from the website and return a good version of the site. Pass this good version back to the user through the proxy. Log everything to a file. If the AI returns an error, pass that error along to the user, do not return pages without AI transformation.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><img src="/blog/assets/images/zappa_1.png" />
<img src="/blog/assets/images/zappa_3.png" /></p>

<p>I disabled uBlock Origin for these tests, Chrome on the left is the default internet, Firefox on the right is using the proxy if by some crazy chance you couldn’t tell.</p>

<p><img src="/blog/assets/images/zappa_2.png" />
<img src="/blog/assets/images/zappa_4.png" /></p>

<p>The right way to ship this is probably a browser extension in some browser that didn’t totally nerf extensions. It should be simple with a customizable prompt, then people can share prompts like they share uBlock Origin filter lists. And it should be agentic, it shouldn’t actually return the HTML, it should use tools and keep per site state. Imagine a skilled software engineer running in 100x real time cleaning up websites for you before you view them.</p>

<p>Don’t fall for AI browser crap that’s marketed to you, that’s just them wanting to control your attention better. You need an AI you can trust to fight back!</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>I hope ad people see the writing on the wall, get scared, and pivot to user aligned business model. Intelligence is about to be dirt cheap, everyone will have a full time lighting fast personal assistant to deal with the enshittified world for them.</p>

<p>And you can say, well they will have a smarter one on the make everything bad side, but if mine is human level and aligned with me they will have to have gone so hard that no actual human in the world can deal with them so yea good luck with that.</p>

<p>The Turing Test is over. Enjoy spending your ad dollars showing things to my Qwen.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[Soon, AI will be good enough to interact with the Internet in an indistinguishable way from a human. This can be an amazing opportunity for liberation from all the people who are targeting your attention.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">The ‘Everyone’s a Billionaire’ act</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/13/everyones-a-billionaire.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="The ‘Everyone’s a Billionaire’ act" /><published>2026-04-13T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-13T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/13/everyones-a-billionaire</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/13/everyones-a-billionaire.html"><![CDATA[<p>I heard that while this blog is good at diagnosing the problem, it falls short when proposing solutions. Today I’m proposing a solution that everyone (except the haters and losers) can get behind.</p>

<p>We have a real problem in America, and it’s billionaires. I mean, it’s actually fiat money that the state can print arbitrary amounts of, but that’s a complicated idea, so we’ll just say it’s billionaires.</p>

<p>You, as an American, have the same right to be a billionaire as everyone else. You know that feeling of resentment you have when you see rich people on social media. Watch the resentment fade once we <strong>give everyone a billion dollars</strong>.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>The implementation of this act would be straightforward. Americas population is 342.6 million. First, we issue new billion dollar bills and print 342.6 million of them. Then we hand them out. A beautiful thing about this bill is it gives plenty of things for the Democrats and Republicans to squabble over.</p>

<ul>
  <li>Should we give the billion dollars to undocumented immigrants (or illegal aliens, if you prefer)?</li>
  <li>Should children get the billion? Should we hold it in a trust for them?</li>
  <li>Should existing billionaires get it? They are already billionaires, this act is for the needy.</li>
  <li>Should we charge tax on the billion dollars? Should TurboTax get a cut?</li>
</ul>

<p>Let’s do an analysis, including second order effects which I know is more advanced political thinking than most politicians do, but we are a new kind of politician, the kind that wants to give you one billion dollars.</p>

<p>The first order effects is that everyone is rich and the rich people aren’t more rich than you. This is pure awesome. I hear that rich people love being rich, and I’m sure you will love it too. This also makes it easy to pay back the national debt.</p>

<p>The second order effects is that the US dollar is over, and everyone will have to switch to something else. Perhaps this time we’ll switch to something that some dude can’t just print trillions of. Like gold.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>When America is ready for a revolution, this is the way to do it. A jubilee. Non violent and through one simple democratically passed bill. We do live in a democracy, right?</p>

<p>Don’t fall for scams like a wealth tax, that is just the elites squabbling over which seat at the large marble table they get. We are giving everyone a billion dollars so they can buy their own large marble table.</p>

<p>I non-ironically support this bill, and you should too. Call your congressman, let’s get it passed!</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[I heard that while this blog is good at diagnosing the problem, it falls short when proposing solutions. Today I’m proposing a solution that everyone (except the haters and losers) can get behind.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">OpenAI is nothing without its people</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/11/openai-people.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="OpenAI is nothing without its people" /><published>2026-04-11T00:00:00+08:00</published><updated>2026-04-11T00:00:00+08:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/11/openai-people</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/11/openai-people.html"><![CDATA[<p>This is a response to this <a href="https://blog.samaltman.com/2279512">Sam Altman’s blog post</a>.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>Sam Altman is not the bad guy. History comes from two places, great men and causes and forces. We have way too little of the former and way too much of the latter right now. I hear that in America people fear the government taking away their freedom, and in China people fear the lack of government taking away their freedom.</p>

<p>Maybe it’s just because I have been living in Asia, but I don’t fear Sam or Elon or Dario at all. I fear the Molochian tragedy of the commons. The small decisions made by millions every day that make the world slightly worse for their fellow man, like adding a dark pattern to a website, lobbying to siphon a few more tax dollars, posting an advertisement that uses fear to sell, or enabling the tip screen in a coffee shop. I don’t fear “great men,” I fear that there’s no one coordinated enough to prevent this.</p>

<p>Technology does not contain a destiny. If you haven’t read <a href="https://marshallbrain.com/manna1">Manna</a>, now is a good time to. The choices we as a society make determine our future.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>The blog post is far too trusting of the democratic worldview. I know it doesn’t say UBI, but I hope you understand UBI is not a real solution, UBI is an extremely dangerous way of disguising slavery in a form of giving you something. Everyone would do well to study Yarvin and understand that in modern democracies, power doesn’t come from the people, it flows through the people. “Making sure (the) democratic system stays in control” is meaningless, it’s not in control right now.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The only solution I can come up with is to orient towards sharing the technology with people broadly, and for no one to have the ring.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>This is the right path. Now, sharing isn’t offering them a subscription to your cloud service, that’s feudalism. You actually have to share the technology, not <em>access</em> to the technology that can be revoked at any time. You might see yourself as the good guy who would never do that, and you might even be that guy! But you won’t have control forever. The problem isn’t that it will be revoked, the problem is that it <em>can</em> be revoked.</p>

<p>I totally understand not sharing the weights of a trained model. That model cost a lot to train, and you have to recoup the investment in order to afford training the next model. But what I don’t understand is not sharing research. Share the architecture. Share the tricks. Share the science. Tbh I’m not sure why any self respecting researcher works at a closed lab, this isn’t how impactful science ever happens and it won’t be different this time.</p>

<p>You will keep your lead. You’ll attract any researcher who cares about impact beyond $$$. You’ll keep the original dream of OpenAI. And you’ll be remembered in history. Science never credits the first guy who came up with an idea, it credits the guy who published.</p>

<p>You can actually make this change. <strong>Have OpenAI start publishing.</strong> Rejoin the millenia long project of science instead of being a forgotten circus of trinkets and intricacies.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[This is a response to this Sam Altman’s blog post.]]></summary></entry></feed>