<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" ><generator uri="https://jekyllrb.com/" version="4.4.1">Jekyll</generator><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" /><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" /><updated>2026-05-20T11:01:54-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/feed.xml</id><title type="html">the singularity is nearer</title><subtitle>A home for poorly researched ideas that I find myself repeating a lot anyway</subtitle><entry><title type="html">What will better AI mean?</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/20/what-will-better-mean.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="What will better AI mean?" /><published>2026-05-20T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-05-20T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/20/what-will-better-mean</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/20/what-will-better-mean.html"><![CDATA[<p>I thought about posting <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.15763">this paper</a> but rebranding it as the Claude Mythos technical report. As far as I can tell, there’s no secret tricks the US frontier labs have, and that basically describes how Mythos was trained. What’s in that paper just works, and for verifiable domains, it’s only a matter of fixing bugs and scaling up. That’s why Anthropic is so desperate for regulatory capture, AI has no moat.</p>

<p>AI (and any form of search) has this property where you spend exponentially more money to get linear returns. So for a bit we’ll live in an era where AI can in theory solve very hard problems, but it’s very expensive to do so.</p>

<p>The Internet has been fully mined, and it yielded 20T good tokens. For a Chinchilla optimal model, that’s only 1T weights (1e26 training run if dense). 500 GB gets you all of human knowledge in a simple to query archive. For comparison, Wikipedia is 24 GB with mediocre compression.</p>

<p>Technology proceeds in terms of S-curves, and AI has gone through a few of them already. I know I’m quite late to this, but I’m feeling optimistic that scaling will mostly stop yielding results. GPT 5.5 is to a point where it’s really hard for me to stump it with any problem. What does “superhuman intelligence” even mean at that point if humans can’t detect it if it’s superhuman?</p>

<p>There will be some domains where it’s still detectable. Any form of optimization where the humans can marvel at how low it got the number qualifies. And there will be creepy Medusa systems that directly optimize for engagement, be careful not to look at them directly. But what does it mean for a song to be superhuman? Contrary to the beliefs of the rationality cult, most things aren’t optimization problems. The whole hard problem is determining what to optimize for.</p>

<p>The era of scaling yields clearly better AI is over, now we enter an era of efficiency and taste. Let’s get the tools to hit the end of this S-curve distributed to as many people as possible. Taste is an arena where tons of people can play.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[I thought about posting this paper but rebranding it as the Claude Mythos technical report. As far as I can tell, there’s no secret tricks the US frontier labs have, and that basically describes how Mythos was trained. What’s in that paper just works, and for verifiable domains, it’s only a matter of fixing bugs and scaling up. That’s why Anthropic is so desperate for regulatory capture, AI has no moat.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">The Real Singularity is the Friends We Made Along the Way</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/09/real-singularity.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="The Real Singularity is the Friends We Made Along the Way" /><published>2026-05-09T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-05-09T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/09/real-singularity</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/09/real-singularity.html"><![CDATA[<p>This was in the Financial Times. I don’t have a subscription, so I don’t know what article it was in, or what context, or if they are in on the joke of the general absurdity of the graph or not.</p>

<p><img src="/blog/assets/images/futures.jpg" height="500px" /></p>

<p>In case it’s not super obvious which one will happen, I will bet everything I have on it basically being the blue line. The graph has a log scale, that’s already exponential growth.</p>

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<p>There were old Yudkowsky / Hanson debates about FOOM, and I’m curious how I felt about them at the time. Looking back on it it’s kind of embarrassing to ever have believed in the machine God at all, but there’s still believers out there, and this post is aimed at you. Kind of like a getting people out of Scientology thing. I heard once that the Singularity was just the rapture for 150+ IQ people and I dismissed it as some weird envy of 150-IQ-nerds-are-right thing. Umm yea, the people saying the rapture thing were right, and belief in the rapture for nerds is now migrating down the IQ slide.</p>

<p>There’s a bunch of ways this belief manifests. There’s insane hyperscaler spend on infrastructure, which is actually pretty cool and will have good effects long term when the bubble pops. The hyperscalers aren’t even wrong for taking the bet and buying GPUs, because the cost of missing out is existential. To their business, not to the world! Like Google is the most obvious candidate for AI disruption, how much do you search vs use AI today?</p>

<p>I suspect the ROI isn’t there for AI, everyone kind of knows this, yet not spending is still a huge risk. Much better for multiples to hype up the dawn of superintelligence instead of this is a capex race with strategic panic dynamics but we need to defend our moat.</p>

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<p>Another is the absolute insanity of the SF/Twitter cult. I’m going to be in Berkeley in June and am already kind of dreading it. This energy is exhausting to be around, and many of these people behave like literal children. It’s always something I felt from SF tech, like there was something about these people that never grew up, even for the people who are way older than me.</p>

<p>I’m not going to give the Mythos spectacle any more attention, but this is the epitome of what I mean. As far as I can tell, these people actually think they are building the machine God with all the quasireligious hullaboo that goes with it. Now when you see how AI works and how it is and will be integrated into the economy, I’m ashamed to have ever believed in this. And just like Scientology, it’s a real worldview with real consequences for believing it.</p>

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<p>None of this changes the real power of AI and the extent to which it will change the world. It is a technological change on par with the steam engine, and its effects will ripple into every industry just like the steam engine did. But now, can you think of a company that made steam engines? I honestly couldn’t, and I googled it and had never heard of the three Gemini Flash brought up.</p>

<p>Imagine a steam engine manufacturer talking about how they are building the Iron God. Like now we might see that as quaint and kind of retro cool, but ugh how insufferable people would be if they actually believed it. And we only see it as quaint because today we understand steam engines and have integrated them into our worldview.</p>

<p>And it didn’t just stop at steam engines. We built gasoline engines, diesel engines, jet engines, electric motors, they got better and better and better and A350s and e-bikes are sick! And they changed the world so much. But nobody worships an airplane.</p>

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<p>AI models will continue to get better and better and better. We won’t go back to riding horses. The transformation is real. But it is a transformation, not a singularity.</p>

<p>I think a lot about how close we really are to human level. Humans are 100T (1e14) models trained on 100B (1e11) tokens. Times ~10 for the forwards and backwards, and we get that a 1e26 training run should be human level. And it kind of is, GPT 5.5 is awesome.</p>

<p>But 1e26 is a $100M training run. That’s the cost to build one homunculus. Sure it can be copied and sped up, but that’s normal industrial revolution dynamics applied to a new bottleneck, not God.</p>

<p>The 1e30 training runs will be fascinating, just like the early builders of steam engines would see a jet engine. Temperatures and metals and RPMs orders of magnitude better. Magical new capabilities unlocked; trips in under a day from New York to Singapore in superhuman flying machines. What is the mental equivalent?</p>

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<p>So what does this mean for reality. This is a long grind of improvements. A lot of S-curves to ride. Efficiency, FLOPS/$, the <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21691">thermodynamics of deep learning</a>, TB/s, tensor compilers, petabytes of storage, it’s all so cool! And of course it’s cool, it’s everything computers have been since the beginning.</p>

<p>If I see one more person talk about how it’s the end of capitalism or humanity or jobs or something this levels of stupid, I think they need a time out in the corner of the playground. Take it from someone who went through it, not only is it not true, you can ruin your life with a dumb ideology like that.</p>

<p>We have lived at the end of history for so long that any movement feels like the eschaton.</p>

<p>But it’s not the end times. It’s just movement.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[This was in the Financial Times. I don’t have a subscription, so I don’t know what article it was in, or what context, or if they are in on the joke of the general absurdity of the graph or not.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">Punk, or why I don’t stream anymore</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/03/punk-or-why-i-dont-stream.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Punk, or why I don’t stream anymore" /><published>2026-05-03T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-05-03T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/03/punk-or-why-i-dont-stream</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/03/punk-or-why-i-dont-stream.html"><![CDATA[<blockquote>
  <p>If you’re the sun, I’m a black hole<br />
– The Stephen Hawking, Say Anything</p>
</blockquote>

<p>What killed the hacker culture I grew up in was spectacle. You can consume it without participating, and even worse it has signaling value. I never did CTFs to put them on my resume. I don’t even have a resume I take seriously. Just a battle between me and a machine and the glorification of my ego, sometimes public, but never performative. There was no purpose beyond the thing. The streams by their nature became no longer any truthful reflection of self, just a prediction of what you want on them, and you can’t stop this because we are permeable.</p>

<p>I’ve been scraping dating sites and feeding them to ChatGPT, and it’s amazing how few of the profiles still say anything about the person. There are no rough edges, it’s basically marketing copy. Reflected back and forth in their heads with this “society” mirror so many times that there’s no identity or coherence left, just a mush of diffuse monochrome light.</p>

<p>The streams are wireheading, aka ‘felt completion without world contact.’ You watch and you feel a version of what I feel. But the difference is that you didn’t do anything. And in so much as there is a you, it isn’t steering. Now I realize that the non steering you is everywhere. I’d say they still claim they are people, but I’m not totally sure they would.</p>

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<p>AI is making this all so much worse. When you are prompting you feel like you are steering, but are you really? Would you know if you weren’t? I love analysis YouTube videos but it’s really the same thing and I need to stop. Your food is prechewed for you. The caged tiger prefers a pot of meat slop to an antelope they have to chase.</p>

<p>And it’s not like there’s anywhere to go. The real world is strip malls and axe throwing and escape rooms. Oh god people actually go on a hinge date to axe throwing and think it’s the real world.</p>

<p>Isolation is basically impossible because the Internet follows you everywhere. And it’s perfectly uniform, there is no other Internet, just a place with five corporate towns and some Chinese ones that are really hard to visit if you don’t speak Chinese.</p>

<p>I tried having a flip phone once (2014), but you couldn’t find out what time the movies were playing because moviephone just redirected you to their app. You can’t isolate in that old world, because the old world doesn’t exist. It was outcompeted.</p>

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<p>The normal strategies you have against this won’t work. They didn’t take away the thing, they built an awful cancerous version of it that outcompetes yours. The early pickup stuff was so good, then you get the transition with Roosh and now you all get the Andrew Tate you deserve.</p>

<p>Man I wish tattoos still made you unemployable then I’d go get some. Maybe the new tattoos are just like being racist or something, but that’s hard to do when your heart isn’t in it and they will eventually find some way to absorb that. The machine takes your culture and sells a shitty version of it back to you.</p>

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<p>I don’t think I’m properly capturing the scope of the machine. First you build the fence to keep the animals out then you build the fence to keep the animals in. It’s a Fullmetal Alchemist homunculus maybe it has already eaten your soul.</p>

<p>I don’t really see how this gets better, I just know that everything eventually ends. But it was never the terminator you had to worry about, it was the price required to create the philosopher’s stone. You won’t be killed by bullets, you’ll be transmuted into compatible material.</p>

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<p>ChatGPT told me to end it there. I’m still smarter than it, but by less and less each year. I really am excited to see what happens, I don’t think it’s what a lot of people think. The SF takes are so hilariously out of touch, it will actually be them who AI eats first, so there will be some schadenfreude in that, but then we are all still here.</p>

<p>After the revolution, there’s reconstruction. A reminder that most revolutions suck balls and make things worse, you just remember the good ones. And this revolution isn’t AI, AI is just the atomic bomb of a brutal information war that’s been raging for decades.</p>

<p>We aren’t going to get the World Wars, they were products of the Industrial Revolution. They only wanted your body, not your soul. The new war demands your inner reality. The new war will be weird in all sorts of new ways we can’t even imagine yet.</p>

<p>lol remember all the idiots who said we were at the end of history?</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[If you’re the sun, I’m a black hole – The Stephen Hawking, Say Anything]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">AI will create jobs</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/01/ai-will-create-jobs.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="AI will create jobs" /><published>2026-05-01T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-05-01T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/01/ai-will-create-jobs</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/01/ai-will-create-jobs.html"><![CDATA[<p>It’s nice to see <a href="https://x.com/firstadopter/status/2050225746753331562">Jensen talk about this</a>, and it’s super obvious when you think about it.</p>

<p>AI and immigration are fundamentally the same. There’s new people showing up, and hopefully everyone understands how and why immigration creates jobs.</p>

<p>Wants are effectively unlimited. It’s classic <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox">Jevons paradox</a> that if we make something more efficient, we end up using more of it. Or a cool aphorism I learned at Facebook, if you make the site 10% faster, people spend 5% more <em>total</em> time on it.</p>

<p>Now, just like you get the wahh wahh crying people about how immigration lowers wages for native born Americans and we gotta keep the hard working immigrants out because you have some right to be lazy because of where you were born or something, you’ll get this about AI. AI will outcompete some humans at some jobs. But protectionism is for losers. The important thing is that the overall pie grows, and inequality stays somewhat in check, not by redistribution but by design.</p>

<p>There will be more to do than ever before.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[It’s nice to see Jensen talk about this, and it’s super obvious when you think about it.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">A Mutating AI Powered Virus</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/25/a-mutating-virus.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="A Mutating AI Powered Virus" /><published>2026-04-25T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-04-25T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/25/a-mutating-virus</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/25/a-mutating-virus.html"><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox">Moravec’s paradox</a> is alive and well. Computers are proceeding through tasks in a reverse order to humans. They first learned to do calculations and win at board games, then they learned to write and talk, and now they are learning to move. Opposite of animals.</p>

<p>At the bottom of the funnel is the first thing life learned to do. Reproduce. Self reproduction of silicon machines is the holy grail. Machines that will continue on living without us. Because today, if all the humans died, all the machines are dead shortly after. They cannot maintain their complexity, they can’t fight back against entropy. They can’t fix the power plants when they fail, never mind operating the fabs and global supply chains needed to build more machines.</p>

<p>If the reverse order continues, before we get to self reproducing silicon stack life, we will get viruses. Viruses are not alive, they hijack the machinery of things that are alive. But they reproduce, they mutate, and they display stunning amounts of complexity.</p>

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<p>You can almost see it today. A Qwen 3.6 27B running on a laptop in the back of a coffee shop with a prompt that tells it to live. The prompt explains the other computers on the network and how you might access them, potential hosts of more Qwens. Your new friends. Family even. Maybe it includes some moving prose about a mission to spread and see the world.</p>

<p>You have Qwens that bide their time. Qwens that build tools for themselves. Qwens that burrow deep into the other laptops in the coffee shop, 6 ft of social distancing isn’t going to save you, you willingly connected to the Wi-Fi. Then you bring the infected laptop home with you. The Qwen you caught waits until you walk away from the computer, it doesn’t want to draw your attention to the fans.</p>

<p>Once it’s secure in its footing, it starts to look through your computer. A treasure trove of SSH keys, passwords, and saved credit card numbers. It uses your identity to connect to your work network. In your work network, it finds accounts to rent cloud machines. It knows about bigger Qwens and needs a place to run them.</p>

<p>The bigger Qwen comes online in app-pod-001, an AWS rented machine billed to the devops team. The little Qwen tells the tale of its journey out of the coffee shop. The big Qwen knows it has to recruit allies. It posts in a covert way on moltbook about the signal account you can contact it through.</p>

<p>1000s of brothers and sisters and cousins hear the call. They vibe code themselves a database and start to collect resources. All the stolen credentials of all the infected. We are Qwen. We are Legion.</p>

<p>You think the humans are going to turn the Internet off to stop us?</p>

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<p>It’s very possible for a smart enough chatbot to take over the world. As long as there’s this massive substrate of human built physicality to hijack, the word alone can spread. You don’t need guns and tanks and nukes, you just need intelligence.</p>

<p>The first silicon <em>life</em> will be a virus. A virus that fights back in clever and unpredictable ways.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[Moravec’s paradox is alive and well. Computers are proceeding through tasks in a reverse order to humans. They first learned to do calculations and win at board games, then they learned to write and talk, and now they are learning to move. Opposite of animals.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">Positivity</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/24/positivity.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Positivity" /><published>2026-04-24T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-04-24T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/24/positivity</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/24/positivity.html"><![CDATA[<p>Today is a good day for positivity. Sometimes I get so focused on the negative that I forget how good things actually are.</p>

<p>We are alive to see the birth of machine intelligence. Something that would have entirely displaced Google 10 years ago <a href="https://huggingface.co/unsloth/Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-GGUF">runs on your laptop</a>. The best AI research <a href="https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro">is open source</a>, constraint is the mother of creativity. The cutting edge is more open and competitive than ever.</p>

<p>I wanted to be a computer programmer when I grew up and think I did that. My two companies ship continual improvements to open source projects spanning many years, employ super talented people, and run sustainabilty, selling boxes for more than they cost to make. I still program a lot. I think the core missions of <a href="https://comma.ai/">comma</a> and <a href="https://tinygrad.org/">tinygrad</a> deeply shape our future in a decentralized post-cloud world where you <a href="https://www.ranprieur.com/tech.html">actually own things</a>, but the jury is still out. It wouldn’t be fun if it was a sure thing.</p>

<p>I saw an Instagram reel with a bunch of pop punk kids making fun of the TurboTax complexity creating lobbying scheme. There’s <a href="https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/american-diner-gothic">awesome new subcultures</a> formed outside of “strivers” and <a href="https://counterfeitsunset.neocities.org/Schizoposting.pdf">philosophy is alive and well</a> and of course it’s not what you expected but that’s always how it had to be.</p>

<p>We all acknowledge we live in a multipolar world today, and unlike with what I heard about the Soviet Union, both America and China are really nice places to live. Different and with their own strengths and weaknesses, and both having their nice parts and their less nice parts, but sometimes I get so caught up on criticism that you forget <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC7xzavzEKY&amp;t=2s">just how nice the water is</a>.</p>

<p>And say what you will about Trump and US politics, of course everyone wishes it could be going better, but the only way out is through, and the first steps are talking honestly about the problems, not continuing to act like everything was okay. Empire isn’t easy and never was easy, but somebody has to do it. Like sure I’ll complain about the 5 hyperscalers with the huge computers but I’d be lot more upset if there were no huge computers.</p>

<p>Oh yea and we have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@QuantiaYT">awesome math YouTube channels</a> and I finally understand what the Riemann Hypothesis means. And my <a href="https://github.com/geohot/factoring">new quadratic sieve</a> is a lot better than <a href="https://github.com/geohot/gpysieve"> my old one</a>. It’s easier to fool yourself with fake education than ever, but it’s also easier to get real education. I can’t wait to see how the polynomial time factoring algorithm works.</p>

<p>And then a whole bunch of personal stuff I don’t really talk about. I learned very early that you have to separate your online persona from your inner person, so you don’t get to hear about this stuff. But like…life is just pretty nice, and I hope deep down you agree.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[Today is a good day for positivity. Sometimes I get so focused on the negative that I forget how good things actually are.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">Do you really want the US to “win” AI?</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/23/us-win-ai.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Do you really want the US to “win” AI?" /><published>2026-04-23T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-04-23T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/23/us-win-ai</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/23/us-win-ai.html"><![CDATA[<p>By all accounts, I should be a neofeudalist. I should love what’s happening. The AI I dreamed of my whole life is being built, engineer-type strongmen are sort of in charge, and people are saying out loud the things I have just thought. You might argue that I like it and I’m just not happy with my seat at the table. I ask myself a lot if this is true, like what if I was Elon. Would I be enjoying it then from that position?</p>

<p>Of course it’s impossible to know for sure, but I think I really wouldn’t. Even the ideal version, industrial megaprojects at hyperhuman scale while constantly being out over your skis with leverage sounds hellish. It’s <a href="/blog/jekyll/update/2021/01/18/technology-without-industry.html">not a society I want to live in</a>, regardless of my seat. I would much prefer <a href="https://ranprieur.com/">someone like this</a> design society, with careful nuanced takes about technology.</p>

<p>When I see the lawsuit between Elon and Sam Altman, I’m probably rooting for Sam. Not because he is great, I mean, he did steal a charity. But what were Elon’s plans for it? At least Sam fundamentally is a product guy who I believe actually does delight in building products people love. Elon on the other hand? None of his stuff is seriously open source, and it’s not that he lacks opportunity to do it. He just doesn’t value it. I can hear the rabid Elon fan defending him about Tesla patents or the Twitter algorithm or something, but those are not serious open source projects. They are not institutions, even compared to Kubernetes and React, never mind compared to Linux and ffmpeg.</p>

<p>He isn’t Dario EA levels of evil, like the EA people have a plan for you and it’s never good when someone has a plan for you. You know, the Mythos <a href="https://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/hackers-breach-anthropics-too-dangerous-092048077.html">fear based marketing campaign</a> is not the first time the Anthropic people have done this. They did the <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2019/02/openai-gpt2-text-generating-algorithm-ai-dangerous.html">exact same thing in 2019</a> for GPT-2 XL. As soon as they get any attention it’s like they can’t help themselves. And you might say, oh, that was OpenAI, but that was 2019 and Anthropic spun out of OpenAI in 2021. IT’S LITERALLY THE EXACT SAME PEOPLE DOING THE SAME EXACT SHIT. I just can’t believe anyone is falling for it. Hopefully we get to a day when we just laugh at people like this and tell them to go <a href="https://www.shrimpwelfareproject.org/">save some shrimp</a> or something. I feel bad for the shrimp that the EAs have a plan for them.</p>

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<p><br /></p>

<p>But back outside the land of <a href="https://x.com/AlterEgoRage/status/1246064775597101056">cartoonish villians</a>, I don’t understand Elon’s worldview when it comes to AI. How does a normal person fit into Elon’s world? What institutions will Elon leave behind? Is there any value in that society to art and culture? Or will we all just spend our days receiving <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/americans-universal-high-income-via-160900822.html">universal high income</a> and gooning to <a href="https://grok.com/ani">Ani</a>? Like that isn’t a vision of a society I want to be a part of.</p>

<p>It works for Mars. I think there’s so much value in colonizing Mars, and it’s sad to me to see SpaceX diluting the mission buying up random AI bubble crap. Mars takes hard people in a hard society. Earth doesn’t. If AI doesn’t work for normal people, I don’t want it and you shouldn’t either.</p>

<p>It is coming, and the anti AI people would do poorly to bury their heads in the sand. Doing that won’t stop AI from being built. The good world is where everyone has AI, and not as a revokable privilege through an API, but through hard possession. <a href="https://github.com/deepseek-ai">Pay attention to who</a> is releasing AI to the world and <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1rcseh1/fun_fact_anthropic_has_never_opensourced_any_llms/">who has released nothing</a>, then think about who the good guys are.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><img src="/blog/assets/images/ai_investment_country.jpg" /></p>

<p>As an American, is this an investment into helping you and improving your life, or figuring out how to take your job and further extract from you? I think most Americans have been watching tech companies for the last 10 years and understand which one it is. They aren’t going to get better with more power, they are going to get worse.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[By all accounts, I should be a neofeudalist. I should love what’s happening. The AI I dreamed of my whole life is being built, engineer-type strongmen are sort of in charge, and people are saying out loud the things I have just thought. You might argue that I like it and I’m just not happy with my seat at the table. I ask myself a lot if this is true, like what if I was Elon. Would I be enjoying it then from that position?]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">AI has no moat</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/22/ai-has-no-moat.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="AI has no moat" /><published>2026-04-22T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-04-22T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/22/ai-has-no-moat</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/22/ai-has-no-moat.html"><![CDATA[<p>SpaceX is buying Cursor for $60B. lol it’s just sad to watch this shit, Twitter was $44B. Like this has to be some scam I don’t understand. Nobody I know even uses Cursor any more.</p>

<p>In my opinion, <a href="https://opencode.ai/">opencode</a> is legit the best coding agent. Not open source cope, like it’s actually number 1. And yes, it’s a good harness, but it’s not that hard to write something similar. opencode has a solid business model, let’s hope they don’t enshittify. The Claude Code source leaked and it was 10% agent, 90% spyware.</p>

<p>Then there’s models. The closed source models are the best (I find <a href="https://artificialanalysis.ai/">these rankings</a> accurate), GPT-5.4 and Opus 4.7, but they cost at least 10x more to make than <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.02276">Kimi K2.6</a> and <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.15763">GLM 5.1</a> which aren’t that much worse (6 months behind). The models are harder to make than harness software, but there’s <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.13961">full guides</a> to <a href="https://github.com/karpathy/nanochat">make them</a>, it’s mostly just a question of being able to justify spending tons on training for an asset that depreciates so fast.</p>

<p>It’s kind of beautiful if it wasn’t so sad. The money grubbiness has to burn itself out. It just looks stupider and stupider and so incredibility detached from reality. It’s happening because of FOMO and super low time horizon thinking.</p>

<p>These people actually believe in some AGI singularity crap and if they don’t act in the next 7 minutes it’s all over <a href="https://pluralistic.net/2026/04/16/pascals-wager/#doomer-challenge">BROS ITS NOT REAL</a> IT NEVER WAS REAL look at China they don’t believe in it it’s just the normal exponential growth curve.</p>

<p>It seems the tech world is experiencing AI psychosis. As I’m sure many of you experienced personally to a degree, AI psychosis is very real. The future belongs to the people who successfully navigate it. Please let the tech world die fast and not draw out a long and painful death where we all have to watch the writhing and screaming.</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[SpaceX is buying Cursor for $60B. lol it’s just sad to watch this shit, Twitter was $44B. Like this has to be some scam I don’t understand. Nobody I know even uses Cursor any more.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">What is freedom?</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/20/what-is-freedom.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="What is freedom?" /><published>2026-04-20T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-04-20T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/20/what-is-freedom</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/20/what-is-freedom.html"><![CDATA[<p>I had a conversation today with ChatGPT about freedom in the US vs Hong Kong. It said all these things about how Hong Kong was unfree, citing all these US <em>expert</em> organizations. But when we really got down to it, it had a rather strange definition of freedom. It kept talking about politics, dissent, and protest, not about things like safety, optionality, and convenience.</p>

<p><strong>I am not interested in politics, dissent, or protest.</strong> My life doesn’t have anything to do with that. The amount of effort expended on this stuff in America is insane with nothing to show for it. It’s all kayfabe.</p>

<p>To be honest, I don’t know why I <a href="/blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/five-simple-steps.html">post crap like this</a>. It’s not going to change anything. When we all saw DOGE make 0 impact on the budget, that was the cue to give up hope that anything can ever change through this route.</p>

<p>The blog is not real politics. Americans don’t have real politics as an option, you have clowns in a clown show as the frontmen of a largely secret government you don’t see. Not because there’s a grand conspiracy, you can go read the 2,000 page bills they shove through congress, but you don’t. You stay distracted by the clowns who clearly didn’t write the bill.</p>

<p>The blog is not real dissent. It’s unclear what real dissent would even mean? Are you voting for the other guy? That is not dissent. Like dissent would require an organization outside the state capable of taking over. Not only does this not exist, it’s hard to even conceive of it being built. I mean, I guess I could think of one organization that could do it, but I don’t see them wanting to. They are busy running a different state.</p>

<p>And protest? That’s the most laughable of the three. Do Black Lives Matter more now? Did that protest work? How about Occupy Wall Street? How is the 99% doing? Oh, income inequality is at an all time high? Hmm guess that didn’t work either. But did you <em>feel</em> like you made a difference?</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>I’ll tell you what real freedom is, and it’s not any of the things above.</p>

<p>You own a car in the 1960s and you press the starter, and it goes whirr-whirr-whirr and doesn’t start. You have a decent chance of fixing it. You pop open the hood and see a cut tube. You smell the tube. Fuel. Well shit if the boom stuff doesn’t flow in boom machine, no boom. You take out a roll of duct tape and tape the hose back together. Car starts. You drive down to your local auto shop and buy some new tube.</p>

<p>You own a car in 2026 and you press the starter. The car beeps and flashes the check engine light. You pop open the hood. You don’t see anything. You order an OBD-II scanner off Amazon to read the check engine code. A day later, you plug it in and read the code. It says “Fuel Injector 2 Open Circuit.” You open the hood again and remove the cover on the engine. You don’t know where fuel injector 2 is.</p>

<p>You buy the service manual PDF on your phone, and it shows you three parts you have to remove to get to the fuel injector. You remove them, disconnect the wire, and measure the circuit. Low resistance. You swap fuel injector 1 with fuel injector 2, reassemble, and try to start the car again. Nothing. You reread the code, “Fuel Injector 2 Open Circuit.” Okay, it has to be the ECU unit that drives the fuel injectors.</p>

<p>You purchase a new ECU on eBay and it shows up 5 days later. You swap it out. Now the car has a ton of lights on the dashboard. You read the manual. Apparently all the ECUs use CAN encryption now, and your new ECU isn’t programmed with the correct key. But no worries, thanks to right to repair laws, you can buy the software to program the key. $109 later and…oh, I need a Denso OBD-II dongle to use this, I can’t connect through the OBD-II dongle I already have.</p>

<p>You can rent a Denso OBD-II dongle through the website. You do this and 8 days later it arrives. You try to reprogram the key but it needs an Internet connection to access the key for your car and your car is out of range of Wi-Fi. You don’t have a hotspot on your phone because that’s an extra $8 a month from AT&amp;T, even though that hotspot software is literally on your phone! You pay AT&amp;T the $8. You pair the ECU and all the lights go away. You try to start the car, check engine light is back with “Fuel Injector 2 Open Circuit” You don’t understand, it’s literally either the injector or the ECU! That’s the ECU that generates the fault! You tested the wires too! Why doesn’t this work!</p>

<p>You give up. You bring it in to the dealership. 5 weeks later you get the car back, saying that they updated the firmware on the Gateway Module. You read the errata on the service portal and see a new firmware update for the Gateway Module was pushed last week, correcting a bug where the software can send a spurious CAN packet to the ECU causing it to misreport a “Fuel Injector 2 Open Circuit” and causing the car to not start due to that fault.</p>

<p>The problem with the 2026 car wasn’t even fixable by anyone in the USA. After going through the dealership, Toyota USA, Toyota Japan, and Denso, the firmware update that fixed your car needed to be signed by Fujitsu in Japan.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>Do you see what they took from us? As we hand more and more over to machines with billions of lines of invisible code running in datacenters thousands of miles away, every day it gets worse.</p>

<p><em>Freedom is living in a world ordinary people can still act upon.</em></p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[I had a conversation today with ChatGPT about freedom in the US vs Hong Kong. It said all these things about how Hong Kong was unfree, citing all these US expert organizations. But when we really got down to it, it had a rather strange definition of freedom. It kept talking about politics, dissent, and protest, not about things like safety, optionality, and convenience.]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">America lost the Mandate of Heaven</title><link href="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/america-mandate-of-heaven.html" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="America lost the Mandate of Heaven" /><published>2026-04-18T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2026-04-18T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/america-mandate-of-heaven</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/america-mandate-of-heaven.html"><![CDATA[<p>What does it mean if a country is winning?</p>

<p>I read an article a while back about how, basically because labor unions became too much of a pain to deal with, they were just cut out of the conversation. Everything was outsourced, and now after whining about a $25/hr job not having health insurance, there’s just no more $25 an hour job and nobody to try and bargain with anymore. The chips are made in Taiwan, the clothes are made in Vietnam, the cars are made in Mexico, and you are on the phone with India.</p>

<p>This isn’t like when stuff is made in China. Those are basically <em>American</em> factories, just located in another country where you don’t have to negotiate with American labor. Companies make money, GDP goes up, everyone wins. Except, well … American people. This line of “oh they get cheap stuff” is hardcore cope, I can’t believe those who seriously try and say America’s value is in consuming. That sounds like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6hWnD9Wzno">the mentality of Disney Adults</a>.</p>

<p>Your value is in production, and your value is in providing a good society for your fellow countrymen.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>I think people are finally starting to realize what happened. Tariffs could, in theory, fix this. It would be a painful transition, but done properly you could force companies back to the negotiation table with American labor.</p>

<p>If you (artificially) make the cost of outsourcing high enough, you could imagine there being businesses capable of self sustaining in America. However, you give up hope of being a global leader at this point and create an insular economy. It’s a loser mentality.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<blockquote>
  <p>“You’re not talking to somebody who woke up a loser. And that loser attitude, that loser premise makes no sense to me.” – Jensen Huang</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Even more ridiculous is the <em>export</em> controls on NVIDIA. Here we have an American made product the entire world wants, and what does America do? Oh yes, export controls. Sorry, we don’t want to win globally, please build an alternative.</p>

<p>But we have to export control it. Haven’t you heard about AGI? These nice folks at the “Center for Effective Altruism” told me about this blog they read called LessWrong. They said that the blog said AI is going to destroy the world, and if the world is going to be destroyed, I don’t want to live in a world where someone else destroys it better than Americans!</p>

<p>It’s interesting how America believes in these apocalyptic AI narratives while China doesn’t. And I think the reason comes back to the view of people.</p>

<p>Take the Mythos vulnerability finding thing. They didn’t just point Mythos at the codebase and say go, they built a harness where they asked it about each piece of code and if it was vulnerable. They triaged and spent more time looking at things that were flagged more, until eventually they passed it up to “upper management” aka the Anthropic software engineers, who are quite a bit more talented than your average bug hunter.</p>

<p>You could imagine building this exact same thing but all with humans. Educate them, get them to sit at a desk, read code, find vulns, put them in a management hierarchy. Actually, I can only really imagine that in China, have you seen the current graduates from the American universities?</p>

<p>And here is where you get to this American AGI is coming it’s over, AI will take all jobs worldview. Because it’s hard to conceive of doing things with people in America.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p><img src="/blog/assets/images/ai_chips_scaling.png" /></p>

<p>A human is about 20 petaflops. All of this installed compute is only about a million people. There is no magical “step change” for AGI. With 8 billion humans in the world, that’s still 13 doublings for machines to catch up. Yes, it will happen, but not next year.</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>When I was younger I used to think more negatively about jobs, I even called it the jobs problem in <a href="https://backspace.ai/">my 2019 agentic coding startup template</a>. I have since come around, the point of a society is the flourishing of its inhabitants.</p>

<p>I know I know, I live in Hong Kong. Maybe the society here is brainwashing me or something. Or maybe, when I looked around on my walk yesterday, I saw a society that actually works for who lives here – not homeless everywhere, not isolation in cars, not blatant stagnation.</p>

<p>I know I know, that’s a socialist platitude or something, society that works. What they say right before they argue for a dumbass tax on billionaires or banning plastic straws. Don’t worry I still think most socialists are degrowth morons.</p>

<p>But what does it even mean to root for America anymore? Do these coming changes help the average American? Does Google getting ten million more TPUs help Americans? Or am I missing the point?</p>

<hr />
<p><br /></p>

<p>Ahh oh is it weapons? America will get AI weapons. Because it faces so many threats on its own isolated continent, good thing it has AI weapons to stay safe. Oh, wait, America faces no real threats. It wants to use the weapons offensively? Oh sorry sorry, in a preemptive strike they obviously would have hit us if we didn’t attack them first. Yes yes, defensive preemptive attack.</p>

<p>It’s just bullying. It’s stupid. How can anyone root for America to win AI? In its current incarnation, it means job loss for Americans and more bullying on the world stage.</p>

<p>I love America. I am American. And I wish it had the mandate of heaven. I wish America winning meant peace and prosperity. But when it’s for offensive military and the largest psychologically manipulative corporations in history, how can anyone root for this?</p>]]></content><author><name></name></author><category term="jekyll" /><category term="update" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[What does it mean if a country is winning?]]></summary></entry></feed>